Participant Data
Market Participants Analysis dated 18.08.2026
KRVFinMart18 August 202623 min
Educational/Derived AnalysisSource: KRVFinMart Research Desk (End-of-Day)As of 18 Aug 2026, 04:25 PM IST
KRVFinMart — Daily Market Outlook
Key Market Signals — Data: 18 Aug 2026
NIFTY 50 24,154.90 ▼ -132.75 (-0.55%) | BANK NIFTY 57,262.40 ▼ -235.40 (-0.41%) | SENSEX 77,235.46 ▼ -492.70 (-0.63%) |
OVERALL PCR 0.90 ▼ -0.08 (-8.05%) PCR below 1.0 and falling sharply signals call-side dominance and short-term bearish sentiment. | INDIA VIX 11.39 ▲ +0.07 (+0.55%) VIX ticking up on a down day — low absolute level but rising direction adds mild caution. | TOTAL OI CHANGE 45,087,210 ▼ -5,825,404 (-11.44%) Massive OI unwind of over 5.8M contracts signals aggressive position liquidation across options. |
FUTURES OI 676,954 ▲ +25,314 (+3.88%) Futures OI rising on a falling market = fresh short buildup or long exit with short entry. | CALL OI CHANGE 7,731,303 ▼ -2,772,331 (-26.39%) Massive call OI contraction — both long unwinding and short covering, not a directional signal alone. | PUT OI CHANGE 6,957,011 ▼ -3,321,518 (-32.32%) Put OI shed more than call OI in absolute terms, pulling PCR sharply lower — net bearish tilt. |
Participant-wise Key Points
FII Strongly Bearish — Accelerating Short Buildup in Futures, Defensive Put Architecture Intact
- Futures net deteriorated from -181,587 to -194,158 (net change -12,571, a worsening of 6.93% in one session). The Long side added a modest 203 contracts (prev 25,299 → today 25,502, +0.80%) tagged [Long Buildup - High Vol], while the Short side added a far more aggressive 12,774 contracts (prev 206,886 → today 219,660, +6.17%) tagged [Short Buildup - High Vol]. Both tags carry High Vol confirmation, meaning these are deliberate, high-conviction moves — not thin or accidental flows. The gross short-to-long ratio now stands at 219,660 : 25,502, approximately 8.6:1 — this is an overwhelmingly asymmetric short position that cannot be interpreted as a hedge against an equity book; it is a pure directional bearish futures bet. The combination of a small long buildup alongside a massive short buildup tells us FIIs are selectively adding minimal protective longs while aggressively extending their dominant short — their thesis of downside in Nifty is being reinforced, not questioned, even as the market registered only a -0.55% fall today.
- Long PCR surged from 1.68 to 2.09 (+24.10%) and Short PCR dropped sharply from 0.62 to 0.49 (-21.05%). A Long PCR of 2.09 means FIIs now hold 2.09 times as many put longs as call longs — this is an extraordinarily defensive options posture, signalling either massive equity book protection or a structured directional bearish view through the options leg. The previous session's Long PCR of 1.68 was already deeply defensive; today's leap to 2.09 accelerates that read. The Short PCR of 0.49 means FIIs are writing nearly twice as many calls as puts on the short side — they are selling upside aggressively, capping any potential rally through written calls. The falling Short PCR (-21.05%) reinforces that the call-writing activity is intensifying, creating a ceiling on the index from the options side that complements the outright futures short. Together, a rising Long PCR and a falling Short PCR create a powerful dual-leg bearish configuration — one leg profits from a drop (put longs), and the other caps any recovery (written calls).
- Call OI net moved from -228,525 to -231,661 (chg -3,136). On the long side, FIIs unwound 152,954 call longs (prev 606,002 → today 453,048, -25.24%) tagged [Long Unwinding - High Vol], and on the short side they covered 149,818 call shorts (prev 834,527 → today 684,709, -17.95%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. The net call position barely shifted (-3,136) because both sides shed contracts at roughly similar pace, but FIIs remain net short calls at -231,661 — meaning they have more call shorts outstanding than call longs. Put OI net improved from +502,455 to +611,080 (chg +108,625). Long puts shed 73,661 contracts (prev 1,019,884 → today 946,223, -7.22%) tagged [Long Unwinding - High Vol], while short puts were aggressively covered, shedding 182,286 contracts (prev 517,429 → today 335,143, -35.23%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. The asymmetry is critical: put shorts were covered at nearly 2.5x the rate of put long reduction, causing the net put long position to jump by +108,625 to +611,080 — this is a net long puts + net short calls = synthetic short architecture, deeply consistent with and reinforcing the futures short book.
- Synthesis — FII Dual-Leg Accelerating Bearish Architecture: FIIs present the single most internally consistent and conviction-heavy bearish positioning across all four participant groups today. Every data leg corroborates the same thesis: their futures net deepened to -194,158 with a gross short of 219,660 contracts at an 8.6:1 short-to-long ratio; their Long PCR exploded to 2.09 (the highest defensive read of the day); their Short PCR compressed to 0.49 confirming aggressive call-writing to cap upside; and their net put position expanded to +611,080 despite overall market OI compression. The combined architecture — net short futures + net long puts + net short calls — represents a multi-leg synthetic short with convexity protection: FIIs profit from a sustained downward move, are additionally protected by put longs if the decline accelerates, and are actively selling any rally through written calls. The High Vol confirmation tags on virtually every leg today confirm these are deliberate, institutionally-sized strategic positions, not passive carry-forward. Compared to the previous session, FIIs have not merely held their bearish book — they have materially accelerated it on a day when the broader market saw massive OI liquidation, making their directional conviction stand out even more sharply.
- Forward: The single most important threshold to monitor tomorrow is whether FII futures net crosses below -200,000 contracts — if FII gross shorts push above 225,000 while the net deteriorates past -200,000, it will confirm a second consecutive day of accelerating bearish positioning and increases the probability of a test of the 24,150 PE OI support level. Conversely, if FII futures net improves meaningfully (toward -185,000 or better), it would signal short-covering and a potential tactical pause in the bearish thesis. Also watch whether FII Long PCR holds above 2.00 in tomorrow's data — a sustained reading above 2.00 is the options-side confirmation that the synthetic short architecture remains intact and active.
DII Mildly Defensive — Holding Long Futures, Adding Put Longs as a Hedge
- Futures net nudged marginally from +31,039 to +31,073 (net change +34, effectively unchanged). The Long side added only 59 contracts (prev 50,815 → today 50,874, +0.12%) tagged [Long Buildup - Low Vol], and the Short side added just 25 contracts (prev 19,776 → today 19,801, +0.13%) tagged [Short Buildup - Low Vol]. Both confirmation tags carry Low Vol classification, meaning these are thin, routine adjustments — there is no high-conviction activity here, and this should be read as positional maintenance rather than a directional statement. The gross long-to-short ratio stands at 50,874 : 19,801, approximately 2.57:1 in favour of longs, which confirms DIIs structurally maintain a net long futures posture consistent with their role as domestic institutional buyers. On a day when FIIs were aggressively adding shorts, DIIs did not flinch or reduce their long book — their steadiness provides a partial cushion against FII-led downside pressure, though the Low Vol tags suggest they are not adding aggressively to their long book either, choosing to monitor rather than act.
- DII options PCR data is not available in today's participant dataset — there are no Long PCR or Short PCR values reported for DIIs. This is consistent with DIIs being primarily equity-side participants who use index options in limited, hedging-only contexts rather than as a primary trading vehicle. Without PCR data, the options directional read for DIIs must be derived entirely from their raw OI changes in the Call and Put books, which are reported separately in Bullet 3 below. The absence of a reportable PCR also reinforces that DII options activity today is small in scale — their options exposure is a fraction of FII or Client positions, and should not be read as a standalone directional signal.
- Call OI net moved from +7,310 to +7,270 (chg -40). On the call long side, DIIs marginally reduced 50 contracts (prev 7,390 → today 7,340, -0.68%) tagged [Long Unwinding - Avg Vol], while on the call short side they covered 10 contracts (prev 80 → today 70, -12.50%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. The call book is tiny in absolute terms — 7,340 long vs 70 short — confirming DIIs are net long calls at +7,270, likely a small directional or income-generating position. Put OI net improved from +46,308 to +47,208 (chg +900). The put long side added 1,000 contracts (prev 46,308 → today 47,308, +2.16%) tagged [Long Buildup - High Vol], and a new short put position of 100 contracts was initiated from zero (tagged [Short Buildup - High Vol]). The High Vol tag on the put long buildup is notable — it signals that DIIs are deliberately and purposefully adding put protection today, even as overall market OI collapses. The architecture of net long calls + net long puts at this small scale represents a long straddle / protective hedge posture — DIIs are buying insurance against downside while maintaining their long futures book.
- Synthesis — DII Steady Long with Active Put Hedge Addition: DIIs today exhibit a split personality that is internally coherent once understood through their structural mandate. Their futures book is virtually unchanged at +31,073 net long with Low Vol tags confirming no urgency to add or reduce — they are patient, index-tracking institutions that do not trade futures aggressively. However, the deliberate addition of 1,000 put longs at High Vol confirmation tells a different story on the options side — on a down day, with FIIs aggressively building shorts, DIIs chose to buy put protection with conviction, raising their net put long position to +47,208. This is a classic long futures + long puts = synthetic call or protective floor strategy — DIIs are protecting their long equity/futures exposure against further downside without liquidating the underlying long. The marginal short put initiation of 100 contracts is too small to alter the read. Compared to FIIs who are outright bearish, DIIs are structurally bullish but tactically hedged — they believe the long-term trend is upward but are prudently insuring against near-term downside risk flagged by today's PCR drop and rising VIX.
- Forward: The key watch for DIIs tomorrow is whether the put long buildup accelerates further — if DII put longs cross 50,000 contracts (from today's 47,308), it would signal that domestic institutions are significantly increasing their downside hedge, implying they see elevated near-term risk despite holding their futures longs. On the upside, if DIIs begin adding to futures longs above 51,500 contracts, it would be the first signal of domestic institutions stepping in as buyers against FII-led short pressure, providing a potential stabilising floor for Nifty near the 24,150 PE OI support.
Pro Bearish Shift — Flipped to Net Short Calls, Reducing Options Book Aggressively
- Futures net deteriorated marginally from -10,043 to -10,711 (net change -668, -6.65% worsening). The Long side added 1,470 contracts (prev 34,053 → today 35,523, +4.32%) tagged [Long Buildup - Avg Vol], and the Short side added 2,138 contracts (prev 44,096 → today 46,234, +4.85%) tagged [Short Buildup - Avg Vol]. Both tags are Avg Vol, meaning these are routine, expected-scale flows rather than high-conviction institutional signals. The gross short-to-long ratio stands at 46,234 : 35,523, approximately 1.30:1 in favour of shorts — a modest net short, far less pronounced than FII's 8.6:1 ratio. Proprietary desks are incrementally net short futures, which is consistent with their role as market-making and arbitrage participants who typically carry a slight short bias to delta-hedge their options book — today's marginal worsening of the futures net suggests their options hedging requirements have shifted slightly more bearish, likely linked to the dramatic restructuring in their options positions seen below.
- Long PCR contracted from 1.01 to 0.94 (-6.23%) and Short PCR collapsed from 1.02 to 0.81 (-20.15%). A Long PCR of 0.94 means Pro desks now hold slightly more call longs than put longs — a marginally bullish tilt on the long side — compared to yesterday's near-perfect parity at 1.01. The decline in Long PCR signals that put longs were shed at a faster rate than call longs during the massive options book unwinding today. The Short PCR dropping sharply from 1.02 to 0.81 is the more significant signal — it means Pros shifted from writing roughly equal calls and puts to writing significantly more calls than puts on the short side. A Short PCR of 0.81 means for every put they write short, they are writing 1.23 calls short — this implies Pro desks are capping upside through written calls, which is a directionally bearish options stance. The simultaneous decline in both Long and Short PCR creates a net bearish pivot in Pros' options architecture, reinforcing the slight futures short they carry.
- Call OI net flipped from +125,614 to -71,246 (a swing of -196,860 — the most dramatic single-session net shift across all participants today). Call long side shed 380,469 contracts (prev 1,135,458 → today 754,989, -33.51%) tagged [Long Unwinding - High Vol], while call shorts covered 183,609 contracts (prev 1,009,844 → today 826,235, -18.18%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. Long unwinds outpaced short covering by a ratio of roughly 2:1, causing the net to flip negative. Put OI net compressed from +112,002 to +39,113 (chg -72,889). Put longs were aggressively unwound by 430,280 contracts (prev 1,142,752 → today 712,472, -37.65%) tagged [Long Unwinding - High Vol], while put shorts covered 357,391 contracts (prev 1,030,750 → today 673,359, -34.67%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. The net put long position shrank to +39,113 from +112,002 — still net long puts, but barely. The overall architecture shifted from net long calls + net long puts (straddle/strangle) to net short calls + marginally net long puts — a structure that resembles a net short gamma / covered bear spread, consistent with the bearish turn in Short PCR.
- Synthesis — Pro Desks Bearish Pivot via Options Architecture Restructuring: Pro desks executed the largest single-session structural options repositioning of any participant group today, with a -196,860 swing in call OI net that flipped them from net long to net short calls. This is a significant behavioural shift — proprietary desks, who typically run balanced straddle/strangle books for income, have restructured toward a net short calls + marginally net long puts posture, which is fundamentally a capped-upside, slight-downside-bias strategy. The High Vol confirmation tags on all four options legs (call long unwind, call short cover, put long unwind, put short cover) confirm these are deliberate, high-conviction repositioning moves, not passive roll activity. The simultaneous contraction of both Long PCR (1.01→0.94) and Short PCR (1.02→0.81) captures the essence of this restructuring: Pros are now holding a book that profits from market stagnation or mild decline, and caps any sharp upside through written calls. Compared to yesterday when Pros were roughly balanced, today's data shows a clear directional tilt toward bearishness — in the same direction as FIIs, though with far less leverage and absolute size.
- Forward: The critical watch for Pro desks is whether their Call OI net (today at -71,246) deepens further negative in tomorrow's session — if it crosses -100,000, it would confirm a sustained structural shift to net short calls, implying Pros are positioning for a range-bound-to-bearish market environment and the 24,200 CE OI resistance zone will face selling pressure from multiple participant groups simultaneously. If instead the call OI net recovers toward zero or positive tomorrow, it would suggest today's restructuring was expiry-related liquidation rather than a directional bet, and the bearish read from Pros should be discounted. Also monitor whether Short PCR recovers above 0.90 — if it does, it signals put-writing is resuming and Pros are returning to their classic range-income posture.
Client Contrarian Bullish in Futures — Aggressively Buying Futures Dip, But Options Book Signals Caution
- Futures net improved strongly from +160,591 to +173,796 (net change +13,205, +8.22% improvement in one session). The Long side added 10,925 contracts (prev 215,653 → today 226,578, +5.07%) tagged [Long Buildup - Avg Vol], while the Short side covered 2,280 contracts (prev 55,062 → today 52,782, -4.14%) tagged [Short Covering - Avg Vol]. Both tags are Avg Vol, indicating these are normal retail participation flows rather than institutional-scale conviction. The dual combination of adding longs and covering shorts simultaneously is a powerful net bullish signal — Clients are buying the dip aggressively with a gross long-to-short ratio of 226,578 : 52,782, approximately 4.29:1 in favour of longs. This is the most dramatic improvement in futures net among all four participant groups today, and it stands in sharp contrast to FIIs who are simultaneously adding shorts — creating a classic institutional-vs-retail divergence. Historically, such divergences tend to resolve in favour of the institutional (FII) directional call, making Client bullishness a contrarian risk flag rather than a comfort signal.
- Long PCR contracted sharply from 0.84 to 0.67 (-20.05%) and Short PCR held nearly flat at 1.05 (prev 1.05 → today 1.05, -0.46%). A Long PCR of 0.67 means Clients are holding 67 put longs for every 100 call longs — significantly more call-biased than yesterday's 0.84. The sharp drop in Long PCR signals that Clients shed put protection faster than they shed call exposure during today's options liquidation, reinforcing their bullish directional bias. The Short PCR of 1.05 (essentially unchanged) means Clients are writing slightly more puts than calls on the short side — this is consistent with a bullish income posture (selling put options, expecting the market to hold or rise). Together, a falling Long PCR and a steady Short PCR above 1.00 present a structurally bullish but increasingly unhedged options profile — Clients are removing downside protection while maintaining their put-writing income strategy, leaving them more exposed to any sharp downward move.
- Call OI net improved dramatically from +95,601 to +295,638 (chg +200,037 — the largest single-session net call improvement across all participants). Call longs shed 852,692 contracts (prev 3,502,967 → today 2,650,275, -24.34%) tagged [Long Unwinding - High Vol], while call shorts were covered even more aggressively at 1,052,729 contracts (prev 3,407,366 → today 2,354,637, -30.90%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. The net improved because short covering (-1,052,729) exceeded long unwinding (-852,692), meaning Clients bought back more call shorts than they sold call longs — a net bullish options signal. Put OI net worsened from -660,766 to -697,400 (chg -36,634). Put longs shed 1,157,817 contracts (prev 2,930,320 → today 1,772,503, -39.51%) tagged [Long Unwinding - High Vol], and put shorts covered 1,121,183 contracts (prev 3,591,086 → today 2,469,903, -31.22%) tagged [Short Covering - High Vol]. Clients remain net short puts at -697,400 — they are structural put-sellers, consistent with an income/bullish strategy. The combined architecture of net long calls + net short puts = synthetic long perfectly mirrors their bullish futures position.
- Synthesis — Client Contrarian Bullish Dip-Buying with Synthetic Long Architecture: Clients today present the clearest bullish positioning of all four participants, and they are doing so with a fully internally consistent multi-leg structure. Their futures net improved by +13,205 to reach +173,796, their Long PCR dropped to 0.67 confirming reduced put hedging, their Short PCR held at 1.05 confirming continued put-writing income strategy, and their options architecture (net long calls at +295,638 + net short puts at -697,400) constitutes a textbook synthetic long — all legs pointing to a bullish market expectation. The critical risk in this setup is the divergence with FIIs: Clients are aggressively buying what FIIs are aggressively selling, at an 8.6:1 FII short ratio versus a 4.29:1 Client long ratio. In F&O markets, FII-vs-Client divergences of this magnitude are significant — institutional money (FII) typically carries more sophisticated analytical frameworks, and retail/client money buying dips into institutional distribution is a well-documented bearish pattern. The removal of put protection (Long PCR falling to 0.67) while holding net short puts creates a naked downside exposure if the market declines materially below the 24,150 PE OI support.
- Forward: The most critical watch for Clients is whether Nifty holds above the 24,150 PE OI support level tomorrow — if the market breaches this level with sustained selling, Client's net short put position of -697,400 contracts will begin accumulating delta-negative losses rapidly, likely forcing defensive unwinding of their futures longs. If Nifty instead stabilises above 24,150 and the overall PCR recovers from today's 0.90 back toward 0.95–1.00, it would validate the Client dip-buying thesis and their synthetic long architecture. Monitor whether Client futures net sustains above 170,000 tomorrow — a drop below that level would indicate the dip-buyers are beginning to lose conviction and covering their long positions.
Bull vs Bear Strength by Participant
FII Strongly Bearish 87% ▼▼ | Clients Contrarian Bullish 62% ▲ | Pro Mildly Bearish / Range Cap 58% ▼ | DII Neutral / Hedged Long 52% ▶ |
Conclusion — Market Outlook for Tomorrow (19 Aug 2026)
▼ Bearish Bias — FII Shorts Dominate
The structural picture emerging from today's participant data is unambiguously bearish at the institutional level, with FIIs driving the dominant directional narrative. FIIs deepened their futures net short to -194,158 (from -181,587) with a gross short of 219,660 contracts — an 8.6:1 short-to-long ratio confirmed at High Vol across both legs. Their Long PCR surged to 2.09 and Short PCR compressed to 0.49, creating a dual-leg synthetic short architecture combining net short calls and net long puts that spans both futures and options. Pro desks reinforced this bearish lean by flipping their Call OI net from +125,614 to -71,246 — the largest single-session call position restructuring of any participant — and their Short PCR compressed from 1.02 to 0.81, confirming growing call-writing activity to cap any upside. DIIs remain a steadying hand with a +31,073 net long futures position unchanged, but their addition of 1,000 put longs at High Vol signals even domestic institutions are hedging downside risk. The only bullish counterweight comes from Clients, who improved futures net to +173,796 and built a synthetic long options structure — but this retail-vs-institutional divergence historically resolves in favour of the institutional (FII) directional call.
The overall PCR dropped sharply from 0.98 to 0.90 (-8.05%), a significant one-day deterioration that confirms call-side relative dominance and bearish short-term sentiment. A PCR below 0.90 is typically a caution zone indicating put-selling exhaustion and call accumulation on the short side. India VIX, while low in absolute terms at 11.39, rose +0.55% on a down day — a rising VIX on a market decline is the textbook confirmation of increasing hedging demand and participant uncertainty. The total OI collapse of -11.44% (from 50,912,614 to 45,087,210) with simultaneous futures OI expansion of +3.88% (to 676,954) creates the classic bearish confirmation pattern: options positions are being liquidated while futures shorts are being added — participants are moving from optionality to outright directional exposure on the short side. The OI-defined resistance at 24,200 (CE max OI) and support at 24,150 (PE max OI) are extremely tight — the market closed at 24,154.90, sitting just 4.90 points above the weekly PE support, making tomorrow's open critically important for near-term direction.
The bearish thesis would be challenged if FII futures net improves toward -185,000 (short covering signal), the overall PCR recovers above 0.95, and VIX retreats below 11.20. A simultaneous improvement in all three would signal FII tactical short-covering and could trigger a relief rally toward the 24,200 CE OI resistance and beyond toward the monthly 25,000 CE resistance. Conversely, the bear case deepens if FII gross shorts cross 225,000, PCR slides below 0.85, and Nifty closes below the 24,150 weekly PE support — that scenario would expose the 24,000 monthly PE support as the next significant floor and likely force Client put-writers into defensive covering.
Scenario 1 — Bull case:
If FII futures net improves from -194,158 toward -185,000 or better (signalling meaningful short-covering), and the overall PCR recovers from 0.90 back above 0.95, and India VIX retreats below 11.20, a relief rally becomes probable. In this scenario, Client's synthetic long (net long calls +295,638, net short puts -697,400) and their futures net of +173,796 would generate momentum buying. The initial upside target under this scenario is the 24,200 weekly CE OI resistance, with a sustained recovery potentially reaching the 25,000 monthly CE OI resistance if FII short covering is sustained across multiple sessions.
Scenario 2 — Bear case:
If FII gross shorts expand above 225,000 contracts (from today's 219,660), the overall PCR slips below 0.85, and India VIX rises above 12.00, the bearish architecture accelerates. In this scenario, Nifty testing and breaking the 24,150 weekly PE OI support becomes the primary risk event — a close below 24,150 would likely trigger delta-driven put long monetisation by FIIs and defensive covering by Client put-sellers (who are net short -697,400 puts), amplifying downside momentum. The next meaningful OI-defined support below would be the 24,000 monthly PE OI support, and a breach of that level would open the path toward the 57,000 BankNifty monthly PE OI support as a corroborating signal.
Key Resistance 24,200 (NIFTY Weekly CE OI Resistance) — FIIs are net short calls at -231,661 and Pro desks flipped to net short calls at -71,246, creating a combined institutional call-writing ceiling at this strike. Any attempt to breach 24,200 faces structured supply from two of the four participant groups writing calls at or near this level. Monthly CE resistance at 25,000 is the longer-term cap if weekly resistance breaks. BankNifty monthly CE resistance sits at 58,000. | Key Support 24,150 (NIFTY Weekly PE OI Support) — Nifty closed at 24,154.90, just 4.90 points above this level. FIIs hold net long puts of +611,080 and DIIs added put longs to 47,308 with High Vol confirmation, meaning institutional put long holders are protecting this level. A breach of 24,150 would trigger put long monetisation (negative delta) and accelerate downside. Monthly PE support at 24,000 is the next structural floor. BankNifty monthly PE support is at 57,000. SENSEX weekly PE support is at 76,000 and monthly at 72,000. | Trigger to Watch Overall PCR reclaiming 0.95 or FII futures net improving above -185,000 — either of these thresholds firing tomorrow would be the first concrete signal that the bearish structure is being challenged. If instead PCR falls below 0.85 and FII gross shorts cross 225,000, the bear case accelerates with high probability of testing the 24,000 monthly PE OI support. India VIX crossing above 12.00 would independently confirm increasing hedging demand and validate the downside scenario. |
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